论文标题
人工智能治理是否应该集中？从历史上设计课程
Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised? Design Lessons from History
论文作者
论文摘要
有效的人工智能国际治理能否保持分散，还是需要一个集中的国际组织对人工智能组织？我们借鉴其他国际制度的历史，以确定集中AI治理方面的优势和缺点。一些考虑因素（例如效率和政治权力）支持集中化。相反，建立一个缓慢而脆弱的机构的风险反对它，而在制定严格的规则时确保参与的困难也是如此。其他考虑因素取决于集中化机构的特定设计。精心设计的机构可能能够阻止论坛购物并确保政策协调。但是，论坛购物可能是有益的，机构的碎片景观可能是自组织的。集中化需要权衡取舍，细节很重要。我们以两个核心建议结束。首先，结果将取决于中央机构的确切设计。涵盖一系列连贯问题的精心设计的集中制度可能是有益的。但是，锁定不足的结构可能会造成比碎片更糟的命运。其次，现在分裂可能会持续存在。应该密切监控这是自组织的还是不足的。
Can effective international governance for artificial intelligence remain fragmented, or is there a need for a centralised international organisation for AI? We draw on the history of other international regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in centralising AI governance. Some considerations, such as efficiency and political power, speak in favour of centralisation. Conversely, the risk of creating a slow and brittle institution speaks against it, as does the difficulty in securing participation while creating stringent rules. Other considerations depend on the specific design of a centralised institution. A well-designed body may be able to deter forum shopping and ensure policy coordination. However, forum shopping can be beneficial and a fragmented landscape of institutions can be self-organising. Centralisation entails trade-offs and the details matter. We conclude with two core recommendations. First, the outcome will depend on the exact design of a central institution. A well-designed centralised regime covering a set of coherent issues could be beneficial. But locking-in an inadequate structure may pose a fate worse than fragmentation. Second, for now fragmentation will likely persist. This should be closely monitored to see if it is self-organising or simply inadequate.
