论文标题
宇宙中的人工与生物智能：来自Drake方程的随机分析的线索
Artificial versus Biological Intelligence in the Cosmos: Clues from a Stochastic Analysis of the Drake Equation
论文作者
论文摘要
Drake方程已被多次用于估计银河系中可观察的文明的数量。但是，结果的不确定性是如此之大，以至于任何个人结果都是有限使用的，因为预测范围从可观察到的宇宙中的少数可观察的文明到每银行大小的银河系的数千万。一项统计调查表明，尽管Drake方程不确定性，但仍可以预测宇宙中普遍的智力形式是人为而不是生物学的可能性。在所有调查的情况下，人工智能的可能性远远超出了生物智能的可能性。该结论取决于有限数量的合理假设。讨论了这种结果在解释费米悖论中的重要性。
The Drake equation has been used many times to estimate the number of observable civilizations in the Galaxy. However, the uncertainty of the outcome is so great that any individual result is of limited use, as predictions can range from a handful of observable civilizations in the observable universe to tens of millions per Milky Way-sized galaxy. A statistical investigation shows that the Drake equation, despite its uncertainties, delivers robust predictions of the likelihood that the prevalent form of intelligence in the universe is artificial rather than biological. The likelihood of artificial intelligence far exceeds the likelihood of biological intelligence in all cases investigated. This conclusion is contingent upon a limited number of plausible assumptions. The significance of this outcome in explaining the Fermi paradox is discussed.
