论文标题
首次尝试建模冠状病毒爆发的动力学2020
First attempts to model the dynamics of the Coronavirus outbreak 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
自2019年底以来，据报道，新的冠状病毒（称为2019-NCOV）爆发了来自中国和后来的世界其他地区。自1月21日以来，他每天都报告了中国和其他国家的确认案件和死亡的数据。在这项工作中，我们提出了一些离散和连续的模型，以归因中国的疾病动态并估算所需的流行病学参数。对于离散传输模型和稍微修改的SIR模型，都可以找到与当前动力学的良好一致性。
Since the end of 2019 an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus, called 2019--nCoV, is reported from China and later other parts of the world. Since January 21, WHO reports daily data on confirmed cases and deaths from both China and other countries. In this work we present some discrete and continuous models to discribe the disease dynamics in China and estimate the needed epidemiological parameters. Good agreement with the current dynamics has be found for both a discrete transmission model and a slightly modified SIR-model.
