论文标题
荷兰的观察性日常和区域光伏太阳能生产
Observational daily and regional photovoltaic solar energy production for the Netherlands
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了一个经典的估计问题，用于计算荷兰光伏太阳能系统在每日，年度和区域基础上产生的能量。我们确定了两个数据源来构建我们的方法：PvOutput，一个带有太阳能产量测量值的在线门户以及来自荷兰皇家气象学院的建模辐照度数据。鉴于辐照度，我们将这些观察能量产量的概率功能结合在一起，然后我们将其应用于PV系统数据库，从而使我们能够计算每日和年度的太阳能产量。我们检查了我们的日常和年度估计值的变化，这是由于采用不同规格的不同子集（例如方向，倾斜和逆变器与PV容量比）的差异。因此，我们在2016年和2017年分别获得了877-946 kWh/kwp和838-899 kWh/kwp的特定年度能源收益率。荷兰统计局使用的当前方法认为这是875 kWh/kwp，这意味着在2016年和2017年分别低估了产量并高估了产量。最后，我们将国家估计值转化为每个城市的太阳能收益率。这项研究表明，基于辐照度的太阳能产生是必要的，以在国家和区域水平上获得更准确的能量产量。
This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar energy systems in the Netherlands, on a daily, annual and regional basis. We identify two data sources to construct our methodology: pvoutput, an online portal with solar energy yield measurements, and modelled irradiance data, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Combining these, we obtain probability functions of observing energy yields, given the irradiance, which we then apply to our PV systems database, allowing us to calculate daily and annual solar energy yields. We examine the variation in our daily and annual estimates as a result of taking different subsets of pvoutput systems with certain specifications such as orientation, tilt and inverter to PV capacity ratio. Hence we obtain specific annual energy yields in the range of 877-946 kWh/kWp and 838-899 kWh/kWp for 2016 and 2017 respectively. The current method used at Statistics Netherlands assumes this to be 875 kWh/kWp, meaning the yields were underestimated and overestimated for 2016 and 2017 respectively. Finally, we translate our national estimates into solar energy yields per municipality. This research demonstrates that an irradiance based measure of solar energy generation is necessary to obtain more accurate energy yields on both a national and regional level.
