论文标题
COVID-19的网络结构传播和印度测试策略中的空隙
Network structure of COVID-19 spread and the lacuna in India's testing strategy
论文作者
论文摘要
我们表征了COVID-19的网络在印度传播，发现传输速率为0.43，每日病例增长由在国外染上病毒的人驱动。我们探讨了这个问题是，这是否代表了指数衰减的动态，还是仅仅是印度测试策略的人工制品。测试在很大程度上仅限于从高危国家旅行及其即时接触的个人，这意味着该网络反映了偏见的测试样本的积极识别。通常，鉴于测试水平较低，几乎完全缺乏社区差异的测试，因此我们可能会忽略爆发的实际性质。印度仍然有明显低的案件销售，可能会有很小的行动窗口，因此应积极，系统地扩展随机测试以进行社区蔓延，包括无症状案件。这将有助于理解真正的传输特征，并在不久的将来适当计划。
We characterize the network of COVID-19 spread in India and find that the transmission rate is 0.43, with daily case growth driven by individuals who contracted the virus abroad. We explore the question of whether this represents exponentially decaying dynamics or is simply an artefact of India's testing strategy. Testing has largely been limited to individuals travelling from high-risk countries and their immediate contacts, meaning that the network reflects positive identifications from a biased testing sample. Given generally low levels of testing and an almost complete absence of testing for community spread, there is significant risk that we may be missing out on the actual nature of outbreak. India still has an apparently low current caseload, with possibly a small window of time to act, and should therefore aggressively and systematically expand random testing for community spread, including for asymptomatic cases. This will help understand true transmission characteristics and plan appropriately for the immediate future.
