论文标题
在社会疏远之后
A simplified model for expected development of the SARS-CoV-2 (Corona) spread in Germany and US after social distancing
论文作者
论文摘要
关于SARS-COV-2病毒在实际的Covid-19-19大流行期间，社会疏远的效率存在着广泛的见解和讨论。尽管德国发布了一项联邦法律，该法律禁止在包括美国（美国）发布的其他两个国家 /地区的任何直接联系。 人们现在想知道这些措施是否有助于阻止或妨碍19009年大流行，并限制新的电晕病毒的传播。 关于这个问题的定量陈述取决于许多参数，这些参数难以在数学上掌握，因此无法最终掌握（它们包括遵守确定的措施，估计的未报告案例的估计数量，测试能力的可能限制，可能的病毒突变等等。）。但是，事实证明，实际的每日新感染率（简而言之：感染率的实际每日增长率）从美国的当前价值降低到10％，在停止病毒的传播方面将非常有效。一周前关闭任何公共事件，学校和大学的德国严重限制可能已经导致报告案件的增长率降低了30％。
Widespread opinions and discussion exist regarding the efficiency of social distancing after crucial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the actual Covid-19 pandemic. While Germany has released a federal law that prohibits any type of direct contact for more than 2 people other countries including the US released curfews. People are now wondering whether these measures are helpful to stop or hamper the Covid-19 pandemic and to limit the spread of the new corona virus. A quantitative statement on this question depends on many parameters that are difficult to grasp mathematically and cannot therefore be made conclusively (they include consistent adherence to the measures decided, the estimated number of unreported cases, the possible limitation by test capacities, possible mutations of the virus, etc ...). However, it turns out that a reduction in the actual daily new infection rate (actual daily growth rate of reported cases, in short: infection rate) from the current value of 30-35% in the US to 10% would be extremely effective in stopping the spread of the virus. The severe restrictions in Germany which closed any public events, schools and universities a week ago might already have contributed to a reduction of the growth rate of reported cases below 30%.
