论文标题
有限种群的接触流行模型的动力学
Dynamics of contact epidemic models for finite populations
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了在有限种群中传播感染性疾病的接触流行模型。尺寸依赖性进入感染率。然后，在确定性近似值以及随机公式中分析了此类模型的动力学。在确定性方程式的层面上，我们推断该模型参数之间的关系，使该疾病成为地方性。在随机公式中，可以为概率分布编写递归关系，从而导致其某些矩的精确表达并检查随机阈值定理的有效性。
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as in terms of a stochastic formulation. At the level of the deterministic equations, we deduce relations between the parameters of the model for the disease to become endemic. Within the stochastic formulation, it is possible to write recursion relations for the probability distribution, that lead to exact expression for some of its moments and check the validity of the stochastic threshold theorems.
