论文标题
COVID-19:关于不均匀随机社交网络传染的分析
COVID-19: Analytics Of Contagion On Inhomogeneous Random Social Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
本文将需要新颖的强大方法来建模Covid-19的流行,因此将$ n $个人的人口视为不均匀的随机社交网络(IRSN)。网络的节点代表不同类型的个体,边缘代表了重要的社会关系。流行病被描绘为每天变化的传染过程,该过程是在人口中引入的种子感染在第一天$ 0 $ $ 0触发的。假定个人的社会行为和健康状况是随机的,概率分布的类型各不相同。首先,给出了基本SI(“易感性感染”)网络传染模型的公式和分析,该模型的重点是已感染的累积人数。主要结果是在初始条件下,在$ t $的系统状态下,在系统状态的大$ n $限制中有效的分析公式。该公式仅涉及一维集成。接下来,制定了更现实的SIR和SEIR网络模型,包括“删除”(R)和“暴露”(E)类别。这些模型还导致分析公式,从而概括了SI网络模型的结果。该框架可以很容易地适应用于分析各种公共卫生干预措施,包括疫苗接种,社会疏远和隔离。该公式可以通过有效合并快速傅立叶变换的算法来数值实现。最后,提出了许多开放问题和调查途径,例如该框架与普通微分方程的关系SIR模型和基于代理的传染模型,这些模型更常用于现实世界流行病模型中。
Motivated by the need for novel robust approaches to modelling the Covid-19 epidemic, this paper treats a population of $N$ individuals as an inhomogeneous random social network (IRSN). The nodes of the network represent different types of individuals and the edges represent significant social relationships. An epidemic is pictured as a contagion process that changes daily, triggered on day $0$ by a seed infection introduced into the population. Individuals' social behaviour and health status are assumed to be random, with probability distributions that vary with their type. First a formulation and analysis is given for the basic SI ("susceptible-infective") network contagion model, which focusses on the cumulative number of people that have been infected. The main result is an analytical formula valid in the large $N$ limit for the state of the system on day $t$ in terms of the initial conditions. The formula involves only one-dimensional integration. Next, more realistic SIR and SEIR network models, including "removed" (R) and "exposed" (E) classes, are formulated. These models also lead to analytical formulas that generalize the results for the SI network model. The framework can be easily adapted for analysis of different kinds of public health interventions, including vaccination, social distancing and quarantine. The formulas can be implemented numerically by an algorithm that efficiently incorporates the fast Fourier transform. Finally a number of open questions and avenues of investigation are suggested, such as the framework's relation to ordinary differential equation SIR models and agent based contagion models that are more commonly used in real world epidemic modelling.