论文标题
流行病时间；理论，讨论和局限性
Epidemic Arrival Times; Theory, Discussion, and Limitations
论文作者
论文摘要
在过去的一个世纪中，世界航空网络的兴起导致了我们的“距离”和“亲密”的概念的急剧变化，无论是在贸易和旅行方面，但（不太希望）就疾病的传播而言。当发现新颖的病原体时，捕获了国家，城市和医院，试图预测他们必须准备多少时间。在本文中，通过将流行病的早期阶段视为一个简单的分支过程，我们得出了到达时间的完全概率分布。我们能够重新启用许多过去的到达时间结果（在适当的限制中），并证明了我们方法的鲁棒性，既可以远远超出传统上考虑的策略的参数值，又符合所使用的参数值的错误。分支过程方法为Brockmann＆Helbing（2013）引入的“有效距离”提供了一些理论上的理由，但是我们还观察到，与现实世界数据相比，此类方法中所有方法的预测能力显着低于先前报道的。
The rise of the World Airline Network over the past century has lead to sharp changes in our notions of `distance' and `closeness' - both in terms of trade and travel, but also (less desirably) with respect to the spread of disease. When novel pathogens are discovered, countries, cities and hospitals are caught trying to predict how much time they have to prepare. In this paper, by considering the early stages of epidemic spread as a simple branching process, we derive the full probability distribution of arrival times. We are able to re-derive a number of past arrival time results (in suitable limits), and demonstrate the robustness of our approach, both to parameter values far outside the traditionally considered regime, and to errors in the parameter values used. The branching process approach provides some theoretical justification to the `effective distance' introduced by Brockmann & Helbing (2013), however we also observe that when compared to real world data, the predictive power of all methods in this class is significantly lower than has been previously reported.
