论文标题
平坦的曲线：Covid-19的on-Ow-Off锁定策略，并向Brazi申请
Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazi
论文作者
论文摘要
当前的Covid-19大流行正在以不同的方式影响不同的国家。各种报告技术以及其他问题（例如低报告和预算限制）的各种问题使预测病毒的传播和致命性是具有挑战性的任务。这项工作试图更好地了解Covid-19将如何影响研究最少的国家之一，即巴西。目前，几个巴西国家处于锁定状态。但是，要解除这种类型的措施存在政治压力。这项工作考虑了这种终止对病毒在局部发展的影响。这是通过使用开 /关策略扩展SEIR模型来完成的。鉴于SEIR的简单性，我们还试图通过开发神经回归器来获得更多的见识。我们选择采用当前临床研究指出的特征，与19岁的杀伤力有联系。我们讨论如何处理这些数据以获得强大的评估。
The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.
