论文标题
欧洲能源系统的早期脱碳有钱
Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off
论文作者
论文摘要
对于给定的碳预算，在几十年中，能源系统的不同转换率不同。在这里，我们考虑了2020年至2050年之间欧洲电力，供暖和运输部门的累积二氧化碳排放的33 GTCO2预算，这代表了欧洲对巴黎协定的贡献。我们发现，遵循早期稳定的路径，在前十年中，排放量大大减少比遵循较晚和快速的路径更具成本效益，在后期和快速的路径中，低初始减少目标迅速耗尽了碳预算，并且需要稍后的急剧减少。我们表明，太阳能光伏，陆上和近海风可以成为完全脱碳的能量系统的基石，并且需要类似于历史最大值的安装速率才能及时脱碳。这些结果的关键是通过欧洲耦合的欧洲能源系统的开放，每小时分辨，网络模型的正确表示现有的平衡策略。
For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. Here we consider a budget of 33 GtCO2 for the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from the European electricity, heating, and transport sectors between 2020 and 2050, which represents Europe's contribution to the Paris Agreement. We have found that following an early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost-effective than following a late and rapid path in which low initial reduction targets quickly deplete the carbon budget and require a sharp reduction later. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation. Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system.
