论文标题
通过逻辑回归和粒子群优化优化银行的可靠性
Optimizing the reliability of a bank with Logistic Regression and Particle Swarm Optimization
论文作者
论文摘要
众所周知,诸如机械工程,电气工程,土木工程,航空工程,化学工程和软件工程等学科见证了可靠性工程概念的成功应用。但是,金融服务中缺少可靠性的概念。因此,为了填补这一差距,在首次研究的情况下,我们根据财务比率来定义银行/公司的可靠性,这意味着银行的财务状况可以承受破产或破产的可能性。为了估计银行的可靠性,我们调用了统计和机器学习算法,即逻辑回归(LR)。一旦,参数是在第一阶段估算的,我们将其修复并将财务比率视为决策变量。因此,在第一阶段,我们完成了迄今未知的估计银行可靠性的方式。随后,在第二阶段,为了最大程度地提高银行的可靠性,我们在单目标环境中提出了一个不受限制的优化问题,并使用众所周知的粒子群优化(PSO)算法对其进行解决。因此,从本质上讲,这两个阶段分别对应于预测性和规定分析。拟议的2阶段策略在串联中使用它们对银行内的决策者有益,他们可以试图实现财务比率的最佳或近乎优势的价值,以最大程度地提高可靠性,以防止其银行保护其银行免受偿付能力或破产。
It is well-known that disciplines such as mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, civil engineering, aerospace engineering, chemical engineering and software engineering witnessed successful applications of reliability engineering concepts. However, the concept of reliability in its strict sense is missing in financial services. Therefore, in order to fill this gap, in a first-of-its-kind-study, we define the reliability of a bank/firm in terms of the financial ratios connoting the financial health of the bank to withstand the likelihood of insolvency or bankruptcy. For the purpose of estimating the reliability of a bank, we invoke a statistical and machine learning algorithm namely, logistic regression (LR). Once, the parameters are estimated in the 1st stage, we fix them and treat the financial ratios as decision variables. Thus, in the 1st stage, we accomplish the hitherto unknown way of estimating the reliability of a bank. Subsequently, in the 2nd stage, in order to maximize the reliability of the bank, we formulate an unconstrained optimization problem in a single-objective environment and solve it using the well-known particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Thus, in essence, these two stages correspond to predictive and prescriptive analytics respectively. The proposed 2-stage strategy of using them in tandem is beneficial to the decision-makers within a bank who can try to achieve the optimal or near-optimal values of the financial ratios in order to maximize the reliability which is tantamount to safeguarding their bank against solvency or bankruptcy.