论文标题
COVID19限制真的值得成本吗？比较澳大利亚的估计死亡率19和经济衰退
Are the COVID19 restrictions really worth the cost? A comparison of estimated mortality in Australia from COVID19 and economic recession
论文作者
论文摘要
关于当前COVID19限制的经济影响是否值得成本，广泛的辩论是广泛的辩论。尽管Covid19的潜在影响已被广泛建模，但有关潜在经济影响的讨论中，很少有数字提出。对于这个问题的好答案 - 限制会造成与Covid19一样多的伤害吗？ - 需要可靠的基于证据的估计，而不是简单地言论。在这里，我们提供了一些初步估计，以比较当前限制与病毒直接影响的影响。由于大多数国家目前正在采用一种减少Covid19死亡人数的方法，因此我们提供的Covid19死亡人数的估计是故意从感染死亡率的估计的低端采取的，而经济衰退死亡的估计是根据严重的经济衰落的高端置信区的双倍计算而对经济衰退的估计。这样可以确保提供对当前限制的现状的充分挑战。我们的分析表明，严格消除病毒的限制可能会导致总死亡人数至少少八倍，而不是立即恢复工作情况。
There has been considerable public debate about whether the economic impact of the current COVID19 restrictions are worth the costs. Although the potential impact of COVID19 has been modelled extensively, very few numbers have been presented in the discussions about potential economic impacts. For a good answer to the question - will the restrictions cause as much harm as COVID19? - credible evidence-based estimates are required, rather than simply rhetoric. Here we provide some preliminary estimates to compare the impact of the current restrictions against the direct impact of the virus. Since most countries are currently taking an approach that reduces the number of COVID19 deaths, the estimates we provide for deaths from COVID19 are deliberately taken from the low end of the estimates of the infection fatality rate, while estimates for deaths from an economic recession are deliberately computed from double the high end of confidence interval for severe economic recessions. This ensures that an adequate challenge to the status quo of the current restrictions is provided. Our analysis shows that strict restrictions to eradicate the virus are likely to lead to at least eight times fewer total deaths than an immediate return to work scenario.
