论文标题
分类电力需求预测的添加剂堆叠
Additive stacking for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
未来的网格管理系统将协调分布式生产和存储资源,以具有成本效益的方式管理运输电气化和较高依赖天气的生产所带来的负载和可变性。对于此类系统,电力需求预测将是较低的聚合水平的关键输入。我们专注于在单个家庭一级的预测需求上,这比预测总需求更具挑战性,这是由于信噪比较低以及跨家庭消费模式的异质性。我们提出了一种新的合奏方法,用于概率预测,该方法借用了整个家庭的力量,同时容纳了他们的个人特质。特别是,我们开发了一组模型或“专家”,它们捕获了不同的需求动态,并且它们每个家庭都适合每个家庭的数据。然后,我们构建了专家的聚合,在整个数据集中估算了集合权重,主要的创新是我们通过采用加法模型结构,使权重与协变量变化。特别是,提出的聚合方法是回归堆叠的扩展(Breiman,1996),其中混合物的权重是使用参数,光滑或随机效应的线性组合对混合物进行建模的。构建和拟合添加堆叠模型的方法由GamFactory R软件包实现,可在https://github.com/mfasiolo/gamfactory上获得。
Future grid management systems will coordinate distributed production and storage resources to manage, in a cost effective fashion, the increased load and variability brought by the electrification of transportation and by a higher share of weather dependent production. Electricity demand forecasts at a low level of aggregation will be key inputs for such systems. We focus on forecasting demand at the individual household level, which is more challenging than forecasting aggregate demand, due to the lower signal-to-noise ratio and to the heterogeneity of consumption patterns across households. We propose a new ensemble method for probabilistic forecasting, which borrows strength across the households while accommodating their individual idiosyncrasies. In particular, we develop a set of models or 'experts' which capture different demand dynamics and we fit each of them to the data from each household. Then we construct an aggregation of experts where the ensemble weights are estimated on the whole data set, the main innovation being that we let the weights vary with the covariates by adopting an additive model structure. In particular, the proposed aggregation method is an extension of regression stacking (Breiman, 1996) where the mixture weights are modelled using linear combinations of parametric, smooth or random effects. The methods for building and fitting additive stacking models are implemented by the gamFactory R package, available at https://github.com/mfasiolo/gamFactory.