论文标题
卡塔尔共同爆发的SEIRD模型：一个案例研究
SEIRD Model for Qatar Covid-19 Outbreak: A Case Study
论文作者
论文摘要
2020年的Covid-19爆发要求许多政府为政策和计划目的开发爆发的数学统计模型。这项工作提供了有关使用易感，暴露，感染，恢复和死亡状态的座舱模型的教程。贝叶斯框架用于执行参数估计和预测。该模型使用干预措施来量化各种政府试图减缓病毒传播的影响。还做出预测以确定何时发生峰值活性感染。
The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time. A Bayesian Framework is utilized to perform both parameter estimation and predictions. This model uses interventions to quantify the impact of various government attempts to slow the spread of the virus. Predictions are also made to determine when the peak Active Infections will occur.
