论文标题
抵押贷款市场中的沿海洪水风险：风暴激增模型的预测与洪水保险图
Coastal Flood Risk in the Mortgage Market: Storm Surge Models' Predictions vs. Flood Insurance Maps
论文作者
论文摘要
先前的文献认为，洪水保险地图可能无法捕获洪水风险的程度。本文通过使用飓风风暴高度的物理模拟而不是使用FEMA的洪水保险图，对抵押市场中沿海洪水风险进行了细致的评估。匹配的邻里级别的预测风暴潮高度与抵押文件表明，沿海洪水风险可能很大：自2012年以来，风暴浪潮地区的起源和证券化的起源和证券化一直在急剧上升，而使用洪水保险地图时它们保持稳定。每年，保险洪泛区以外的风暴潮地区发生了超过500亿美元的起源。在风暴潮地区的代理抵押贷款的份额增加，但在洪水保险100年的洪泛区中仍然稳定。风暴浪潮区的抵押贷款更可能很复杂：非远程化特征，例如兴趣或可调率。家庭在风暴潮地区也可能更脆弱：家庭收入中位数较低，非洲裔美国人的份额和西班牙裔的份额要高得多，健康覆盖范围的个人份额较低。风暴浪潮地区的价格比率下降，而洪水保险区的增加。本文表明，发现未来的金融洪水风险需要独立于洪水保险制图过程的科学模型。
Prior literature has argued that flood insurance maps may not capture the extent of flood risk. This paper performs a granular assessment of coastal flood risk in the mortgage market by using physical simulations of hurricane storm surge heights instead of using FEMA's flood insurance maps. Matching neighborhood-level predicted storm surge heights with mortgage files suggests that coastal flood risk may be large: originations and securitizations in storm surge areas have been rising sharply since 2012, while they remain stable when using flood insurance maps. Every year, more than 50 billion dollars of originations occur in storm surge areas outside of insurance floodplains. The share of agency mortgages increases in storm surge areas, yet remains stable in the flood insurance 100-year floodplain. Mortgages in storm surge areas are more likely to be complex: non-fully amortizing features such as interest-only or adjustable rates. Households may also be more vulnerable in storm surge areas: median household income is lower, the share of African Americans and Hispanics is substantially higher, the share of individuals with health coverage is lower. Price-to-rent ratios are declining in storm surge areas while they are increasing in flood insurance areas. This paper suggests that uncovering future financial flood risk requires scientific models that are independent of the flood insurance mapping process.
