论文标题
年龄结构化估计值为19 ICU的ICU需求来自低质量数据
Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data
论文作者
论文摘要
我们对确认病例的年龄结构概率进行了加重病例，并使用ICU职业数据来找到亚调查因子。然后，采用了逻辑拟合，以投影Covid-19-19的流行病的进展，而从已达到此阶段的位置则采取了平稳状态。最后，通过亚调查因子纠正了发现的逻辑曲线，并采样以预测ICU床的未来需求。
We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with plateau scenarios taken from locations that have reached this stage. Finally, the logistic curve found is corrected by the subnotification factor and sampled to project the future demand for ICU beds.
