论文标题

开发犯罪预测模型和新方法以衡量其准确性的考虑因素

Considerations for developing predictive models of crime and new methods for measuring their accuracy

论文作者

Joshi, Chaitanya, D'Ath, Clayton, Curtis-Ham, Sophie, Searle, Deane

论文摘要

开发时空犯罪预测模型,在较小程度上,为他们制定准确性和运营效率的衡量标准已经成为了近二十年的积极研究领域。尽管呼吁对模型性能进行严格和独立的评估,但此类研究却很少。在本文中,我们认为研究不应集中于找到一个预测模型或最合适的一种量度,而是要仔细考虑影响该模型选择和措施选择的几个因素,以找到最佳的措施和手头问题的最佳模型。我们认为,由于每个问题都是唯一的,因此制定措施使从业者能够输入最适合当前问题的选择和偏好能力。我们开发了一种称为惩罚性预测精度指数(PPAI)的新措施,该指数赋予了这种灵活性。我们还建议使用预期的效用函数以适合给定问题的方式组合多个度量,以根据多个标准评估模型。我们进一步建议使用平均对数评分(ALS)度量,该评分(ALS)适合许多犯罪模型,并且与现有措施的准确性不同。这些措施可以与现有措施一起使用,以提供更全面的方法来评估时空犯罪预测模型的准确性和潜在效用。

Developing spatio-temporal crime prediction models, and to a lesser extent, developing measures of accuracy and operational efficiency for them, has been an active area of research for almost two decades. Despite calls for rigorous and independent evaluations of model performance, such studies have been few and far between. In this paper, we argue that studies should focus not on finding the one predictive model or the one measure that is the most appropriate at all times, but instead on careful consideration of several factors that affect the choice of the model and the choice of the measure, to find the best measure and the best model for the problem at hand. We argue that because each problem is unique, it is important to develop measures that empower the practitioner with the ability to input the choices and preferences that are most appropriate for the problem at hand. We develop a new measure called the penalized predictive accuracy index (PPAI) which imparts such flexibility. We also propose the use of the expected utility function to combine multiple measures in a way that is appropriate for a given problem in order to assess the models against multiple criteria. We further propose the use of the average logarithmic score (ALS) measure that is appropriate for many crime models and measures accuracy differently than existing measures. These measures can be used alongside existing measures to provide a more comprehensive means of assessing the accuracy and potential utility of spatio-temporal crime prediction models.

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