论文标题

COVID-ABS:基于代理的Covid-19-19的流行病模型,用于模拟社会距离干预措施的健康和经济影响

COVID-ABS: An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Epidemic to Simulate Health and Economic Effects of Social Distancing Interventions

论文作者

Silva, Petrônio C. L., Batista, Paulo V. C., Lima, Hélder S., Alves, Marcos A., Guimarães, Frederico G., Silva, Rodrigo C. P.

论文摘要

由于SARS-COV-2冠状病毒而引起的Covid-19大流行直接影响了全球的公共卫生和经济。为了克服这个问题,各国采取了不同的政策和非药物干预措施来控制病毒的传播。本文提出了Covid-abs,这是一种基于代理的新型SEIR(易感暴露感染的反射)模型,旨在使用模仿人,商业和政府的特工协会模拟大流行动态。分析了七种不同的社会距离干预措施,具有不同的流行病学和经济影响:(1)什么都不做,(2)锁定,(3)有条件的锁定,(4)垂直隔离,(5)部分隔离,(5)(5)(6)使用面膜和(7)将面罩的使用与50%的社会隔离式隔离式隔离。在不可能与锁定的情况下实施场景,这表现出最低的死亡人数和对经济的影响最高,因此在社会合作方面,将面罩和部分隔离的场景结合起来可能是实施的更现实的。 COVID-ABS模型是用Python编程语言实施的,并公开可用源代码。该模型可以通过更改输入参数来轻松扩展到其他社会,并允许创建许多其他场景。因此,这是一种有用的工具,可以帮助政治家和卫生当局计划针对COVID-19-19的流行病的行动。

The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the spread of the virus. This paper proposes the COVID-ABS, a new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) agent-based model that aims to simulate the pandemic dynamics using a society of agents emulating people, business and government. Seven different scenarios of social distancing interventions were analyzed, with varying epidemiological and economic effects: (1) do nothing, (2) lockdown, (3) conditional lockdown, (4) vertical isolation, (5) partial isolation, (6) use of face masks, and (7) use of face masks together with 50% of adhesion to social isolation. In the impossibility of implementing scenarios with lockdown, which present the lowest number of deaths and highest impact on the economy, scenarios combining the use of face masks and partial isolation can be the more realistic for implementation in terms of social cooperation. The COVID-ABS model was implemented in Python programming language, with source code publicly available. The model can be easily extended to other societies by changing the input parameters, as well as allowing the creation of a multitude of other scenarios. Therefore, it is a useful tool to assist politicians and health authorities to plan their actions against the COVID-19 epidemic.

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