论文标题
在COVID-19大流行的最佳锁定策略的设计中使用移动性数据
Using mobility data in the design of optimal lockdown strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
介绍了COVID-19的数学模型，该模型将年龄结构化的易感性感染感染的动力学与实际手机数据占了人口流动性。动态模型调整是通过近似贝叶斯计算进行的。最佳锁定和退出策略是基于非线性模型预测控制确定的，该控制限制了公共卫生和社会经济因素。通过对方法的广泛计算验证，可以证明可以计算出具有现实降低移动性价值的强大退出策略，以告知公共政策制定，我们使用来自英格兰和法国的数据集来体现该方法的适用性。实施所述实验的代码可在https://github.com/optimallockdown上获得。
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical model adjustment is performed via Approximate Bayesian Computation. Optimal lockdown and exit strategies are determined based on nonlinear model predictive control, constrained to public-health and socio-economic factors. Through an extensive computational validation of the methodology, it is shown that it is possible to compute robust exit strategies with realistic reduced mobility values to inform public policy making, and we exemplify the applicability of the methodology using datasets from England and France. Code implementing the described experiments is available at https://github.com/OptimalLockdown.
