论文标题

使用预测分析的定价服务维护合同

Pricing service maintenance contracts using predictive analytics

论文作者

Deprez, Laurens, Antonio, Katrien, Boute, Robert

论文摘要

随着越来越多的制造商将重点从销售产品转移到最终解决方案,全方位服务的维护合同在商业界获得了吸引力。这些合同涵盖了预定范围内的所有与维护相关的费用,以换取固定服务费,并减轻客户不确定的维护成本。为了确保盈利能力,服务费用至少应涵盖合同视野期间的预期费用。由于这些预期成本可能取决于几个机器依赖性特征,例如操作环境,服务费也应根据这些特征来区分。如果不是这样,那么不容易发生高维护成本的客户就不会购买或拒绝合同。后者可能导致不利的选择,并为服务提供商提供较重的投资组合,这可能不利于服务合同的盈利能力。我们基于考虑到不同机器配置文件的预测模型的校准,通过数据驱动的关税计划为文献做出了贡献。这将传达服务提供商应以哪种价格吸引哪种机器配置文件。我们证明了差异化的关税计划的优势,并展示了它如何更好地保护不良选择。

As more manufacturers shift their focus from selling products to end solutions, full-service maintenance contracts gain traction in the business world. These contracts cover all maintenance related costs during a predetermined horizon in exchange for a fixed service fee and relieve customers from uncertain maintenance costs. To guarantee profitability, the service fees should at least cover the expected costs during the contract horizon. As these expected costs may depend on several machine-dependent characteristics, e.g. operational environment, the service fees should also be differentiated based on these characteristics. If not, customers that are less prone to high maintenance costs will not buy into or renege on the contract. The latter can lead to adverse selection and leave the service provider with a maintenance-heavy portfolio, which may be detrimental to the profitability of the service contracts. We contribute to the literature with a data-driven tariff plan based on the calibration of predictive models that take into account the different machine profiles. This conveys to the service provider which machine profiles should be attracted at which price. We demonstrate the advantage of a differentiated tariff plan and show how it better protects against adverse selection.

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