论文标题
使用累积死亡的Covid-19的有效流行模型
Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
论文作者
论文摘要
严重的急性呼吸综合症Covid-19在2020年一直处于正在进行的全球健康危机的中心。轻度病例的高患病率促进了医院环境外的亚notification，并且被感染的人的数量在很大程度上未知，导致疾病严重死亡率的估计不足。 Here we use a simple model to describe the number of accumulated deaths caused by COVID-19.所提出的模型与SIR模型的近似解决方案之间的密切联系提供了一个方程系统，其解决方案是对流行病学参数的可靠估计。我们发现，根据暴发的严重程度，原油死亡率在$ 10^{ - 4} $和$ 10^{ - 3} $之间变化，该爆发的严重程度低于先前从实验室确认的患者获得的估计。我们还估计了数量的实际利益，例如基本的繁殖数量以及在有或没有社会疏远措施和封锁的渐近限制中的预期死亡人数，这使我们能够衡量这些干预措施的效率。
The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are or have been infected remains largely unknown, leading to poor estimates of the crude mortality rate of the disease. Here we use a simple model to describe the number of accumulated deaths caused by COVID-19. The close connection between the proposed model and an approximate solution of the SIR model provides a system of equations whose solutions are robust estimates of epidemiological parameters. We find that the crude mortality varies between $10^{-4}$ and $10^{-3}$ depending on the severity of the outbreak which is lower than previous estimates obtained from laboratory confirmed patients. We also estimate quantities of practical interest such as the basic reproduction number and the expected number of deaths in the asymptotic limit with and without social distancing measures and lockdowns, which allow us to measure the efficiency of these interventions.
