论文标题
关于在SEIR模型中跟踪和测试的有效性
On the Effectiveness of Tracking and Testing in SEIR Models
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究跟踪和测试在缓解或抑制流行病暴发的有效性，结合或作为隔离和全球锁定的替代方案。我们在基于网络的SEIR模型上研究了这些干预方法，并增加了对有症状的，无症状和症状症状的额外可能性。我们的重点是经济成本和人类生命损失之间的基本权衡，以及这些权衡如何在不同的锁定，隔离，跟踪和测试政策下变化。 我们的主要发现如下：（i）结合患者隔离的测试降低了经济成本和死亡率，但需要大规模的测试能力才能取得重大改进； （ii）跟踪大大降低了经济成本和死亡率； （iii）跟踪与数量有限的测试相结合可以实现无锁定； （iv）如果有少量新传入感染流动，动态“开关”锁定比固定锁定更有效。 我们的仿真结果强调了跟踪和测试政策在降低经济成本和死亡率及其遏制流行病爆发的潜力而不施加社会疏远限制的潜力方面的极端有效性。这突出了交易这些收益的困难社会问题，其隐私损失必然需要。
We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing in mitigating or suppressing epidemic outbreaks, in combination with or as an alternative to quarantines and global lockdowns. We study these intervention methods on a network-based SEIR model, augmented with an additional probability to model symptomatic, asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. Our focus is on the basic trade-offs between economic costs and human lives lost, and how these trade-offs change under different lockdown, quarantine, tracking and testing policies. Our main findings are as follows: (i) Tests combined with patient quarantines reduce both economic costs and mortality, but require a large-scale testing capacity to achieve a significant improvement; (ii) Tracking significantly reduces both economic costs and mortality; (iii) Tracking combined with a limited number of tests can achieve containment without lockdowns; (iv) If there is a small flow of new incoming infections, dynamic "On-Off" lockdowns are more efficient than fixed lockdowns. Our simulation results underline the extreme effectiveness of tracking and testing policies in reducing both economic costs and mortality and their potential to contain epidemic outbreaks without imposing social distancing restrictions. This highlights the difficult social question of trading-off these gains with the privacy loss that tracking necessarily entails.
