论文标题
股票市场如何反映经济需求的变化？在Covid-19爆发期间，关于中国股票市场的行业特定波动性溢出网络的研究
How does stock market reflect the change in economic demand? A study on the industry-specific volatility spillover networks of China's stock market during the outbreak of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
使用精心选择的行业分类标准，我们将中国股票市场的102个行业证券指数分为四个以需求为导向的部门群体，并确定面向需求的行业特定波动性溢出网络。 “面向智慧的”是一个新的想法，即考虑行业之间的关系与他们的产出相遇之间的关系，重建网络的结构。具有新结构的网络有助于我们改善对经济需求变化的理解，尤其是当宏观经济受到外源性冲击（如Covid-19的爆发）的影响时。在Covid-19的爆发开始时，在中国的股票市场上，符合满足消费需求的人的投资需求的行业指数的溢出影响显着增加。但是，这些溢出效应在中国爆发似乎有效之后下降。此外，某些服务部门包括公用事业，运输和信息服务在内，在COVID-19中遇到了越来越重要的角色。首先，在中国政府领导的情况下，Covid-19成功地包含了Covid-19，并且在中国的效率很高。因此，投资需求的风险得到了控制和消除相对较快的速度。其次，密集使用非药物干预措施（NPI）导致了中国服务的供应限制。在下一阶段，这仍然是中国经济复苏的潜在威胁。
Using the carefully selected industry classification standard, we divide 102 industry securities indices in China's stock market into four demand-oriented sector groups and identify demand-oriented industry-specific volatility spillover networks. The "deman-oriented" is a new idea of reconstructing the structure of the networks considering the relationship between industry sectors and the economic demand their outputs meeting. Networks with the new structure help us improve the understanding of the economic demand change, especially when the macroeconomic is dramatically influenced by exogenous shocks like the outbreak of COVID-19. At the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19, in China's stock market, spillover effects from industry indices of sectors meeting the investment demand to those meeting the consumption demands rose significantly. However, these spillover effects fell after the outbreak containment in China appeared to be effective. Besides, some services sectors including utility, transportation and information services have played increasingly important roles in the networks of industry-specific volatility spillovers as of the COVID-19 out broke. By implication, firstly, being led by Chinese government, the COVID-19 is successfully contained and the work resumption is organized with a high efficiency in China. The risk of the investment demand therefore was controlled and eliminated relatively fast. Secondly, the intensive using of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to supply restriction in services in China. It will still be a potential threat for the Chinese economic recovery in the next stage.
