论文标题

do-search-具有多个数据源的因果推理和研究设计工具

Do-search -- a tool for causal inference and study design with multiple data sources

论文作者

Karvanen, Juha, Tikka, Santtu, Hyttinen, Antti

论文摘要

流行病学证据基于多个数据来源,包括临床试验,队列研究,调查,注册表和专家意见。从不同来源合并信息为估计因果影响开辟了新的可能性。我们展示了如何通过将实验和观察结果结合在真实和现实的场景中来识别和估计因果关系。作为一种新工具,我们提出了一种最近开发的算法方法,可以确定因果效应的可识别性。该方法基于DO-Calculus,它可以利用具有非平凡缺失数据和选择偏差机制的数据。当效果被识别时,do-search输出识别公式可以基于数值估计。当效果无法识别时,我们可以使用do-search识别其他可以识别效果的数据源和假设。在整个论文中,我们以盐酸行为对盐摄入介导的血压的影响为例。在各种情况下,对这种效果的可识别性得到解决,并具有不同的混杂假设。在某些情况下,可以从一系列实验中鉴定因果效应,但不能从调查数据以及相反的情况下进行。作为例证,我们使用NHANES 2013--2016的调查数据以及对随机对照试验的荟萃分析的结果,并估计停止使用表盐的干预措施在干预下的平均收缩压降低。

Epidemiological evidence is based on multiple data sources including clinical trials, cohort studies, surveys, registries and expert opinions. Merging information from different sources opens up new possibilities for the estimation of causal effects. We show how causal effects can be identified and estimated by combining experiments and observations in real and realistic scenarios. As a new tool, we present do-search, a recently developed algorithmic approach that can determine the identifiability of a causal effect. The approach is based on do-calculus, and it can utilize data with non-trivial missing data and selection bias mechanisms. When the effect is identifiable, do-search outputs an identifying formula on which numerical estimation can be based. When the effect is not identifiable, we can use do-search to recognize additional data sources and assumptions that would make the effect identifiable. Throughout the paper, we consider the effect of salt-adding behavior on blood pressure mediated by the salt intake as an example. The identifiability of this effect is resolved in various scenarios with different assumptions on confounding. There are scenarios where the causal effect is identifiable from a chain of experiments but not from survey data, as well as scenarios where the opposite is true. As an illustration, we use survey data from NHANES 2013--2016 and the results from a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and estimate the reduction in average systolic blood pressure under an intervention where the use of table salt is discontinued.

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