论文标题
均衡石油市场份额在COVID-19大流行中
Equilibrium Oil Market Share under the COVID-19 Pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在不确定的需求和供应下，能源市场的平衡模型引起了相当大的关注。本文着重于使用两阶段随机平衡在COVID-19大流行下对原油市场份额进行建模。我们通过随机变量描述了需求和供应中的不确定性，并提供了两种类型的生产决策（在这里，现在和观察）。在第一阶段的现在和现在的决定并不取决于将来要揭示的随机事件的结果，并且在第二阶段的等待决定可以依赖于将来的随机事件，并调整了在罕见的意外情况下（例如在Covid-19 pandemic中观察到的罕见意外情况）的可行性。我们开发了一种快速算法，以找到两阶段随机平衡的解决方案。我们展示了从2019年1月至2020年5月的实际市场数据来预测石油市场份额的两阶段随机平衡模型的鲁棒性。
Equilibrium models for energy markets under uncertain demand and supply have attracted considerable attentions. This paper focuses on modelling crude oil market share under the COVID-19 pandemic using two-stage stochastic equilibrium. We describe the uncertainties in the demand and supply by random variables and provide two types of production decisions (here-and-now and wait-and-see). The here-and-now decision in the first stage does not depend on the outcome of random events to be revealed in the future and the wait-and-see decision in the second stage is allowed to depend on the random events in the future and adjust the feasibility of the here-and-now decision in rare unexpected scenarios such as those observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a fast algorithm to find a solution of the two-stage stochastic equilibrium. We show the robustness of the two-stage stochastic equilibrium model for forecasting the oil market share using the real market data from January 2019 to May 2020.
