论文标题
太阳活动，太阳辐照度和陆地温度
Solar activity, solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature
论文作者
论文摘要
In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. The terrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C that led to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers.现代GSM始于2020年，将持续三个太阳能循环直到2053年。在此GSM期间，两个过程将影响太阳辐射的输入：由于太阳惯性运动（SIM），太阳能活动的减少和总太阳辐照度增加。为了评估后者，这项研究使用了两千年中的日光距离（SE）距离的每日灭虫（SE）从600到2600的距离，在一年中的头6个月中，在600至1600中，SE距离显着下降，在600至1600中，在1600年至2600年中，SE的距离为0.01 au，随之而来的是一年一年的SE距离增加了。尽管在第二个千年（1600至2600）中，这些增加并不完全对称，在此期间，最长的SE距离逐渐从6月21日至7月15日在2600年的7月15日转移，而最短的SE距离从12月21日至1月15日最短。这些距离变化在两千年的前六个月中会大大增加太阳辐照度，而在过去六个月中，在千年1600年至2600年中，太阳辐射的减少并没有完全抵消。这种失误会导致每年的太阳能辐射过剩，以使地面环境和海洋环境能够导致terrestriant升高，从而导致陆地氛围的温度升高。我们估计，GSM期间太阳能的降低以及SIM施加的增加将导致现代GSM期间的陆地温度降低至1700水平。
In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. The terrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C that led to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers. The modern GSM started in 2020 and will last for three solar cycles until 2053. During this GSM two processes will affect the input of solar radiation: a decrease of solar activity and an increase in total solar irradiance because of solar inertial motion (SIM). For evaluation of the latter this study uses daily ephemeris of the Sun-Earth (SE) distances in two millennia from 600 to 2600 showing significant decreases of SE distances in the first 6 months of a year by 0.005 au in 600 to 1600 and by more than 0.01 au in 1600 to 2600 with consequent increases of SE distances in the second halves of a year. Although, these increases are not fully symmetric in the second millennium (1600 to 2600), during which the longest SE distances are gradually shifted from 21 June to 15 July in 2600 while the shortest ones from 21 December to 15 January. These distance variations impose significant increases of solar irradiance in the first six months of each year in the two millennia, which are not fully offset by the solar radiation decreases in the last six months in millennium 1600 to 2600. This misbalance creates an annual surplus of solar radiation to be processed by the terrestrial atmosphere and ocean environments that can lead to an increase of terrestrial temperature. We estimate that decrease of solar activity during GSM combined with its increase imposed by SIM will lead to a reduction of terrestrial temperature during the modern GSM to the levels of 1700.
