论文标题
变化的流动：短期影响器的危害评估
The Manifold Of Variations: hazard assessment for short-term impactors
论文作者
论文摘要
当小行星在短时间内具有一些观察结果时，观察弧中包含的信息可能很少，以至于可能无法进行完整的轨道测定。近年来，克服该问题的方法之一是基于系统的范围，并与可允许的区域理论结合在一起，以限制不确定的中性范围范围和范围率。结果是一组与观测值兼容的轨道，变异的歧管，一个在可允许区域上参数占参数式的二维紧凑型歧管。这样的轨道代表小行星置信区域，用于短期危害预测。在本文中，我们回顾了变化方法的流形，并对相关概率形式主义进行了详细的分析。
When an asteroid has a few observations over a short time span the information contained in the observational arc could be so little that a full orbit determination may be not possible. One of the methods developed in recent years to overcome this problem is based on the systematic ranging and combined with the Admissible Region theory to constrain the poorly-determined topocentric range and range-rate. The result is a set of orbits compatible with the observations, the Manifold Of Variations, a 2-dimensional compact manifold parametrized over the Admissible Region. Such a set of orbits represents the asteroid confidence region and is used for short-term hazard predictions. In this paper we review the Manifold Of Variations method and make a detailed analysis of the related probabilistic formalism.
