论文标题
大流行期间的洪水疏散:一个多目标框架处理复合危险
Flood Evacuation During Pandemic: A multi-objective Framework to Handle Compound Hazard
论文作者
论文摘要
从受洪水影响的地区撤离人口是一种减轻洪水危害的非结构性措施。用于此目的的避难所通常在临时容纳大量的洪水撤离器。大流行期间的洪水导致复合危险。在这种情况下的撤离很难计划,因为在高度拥挤的庇护所中,社会距离几乎是不可能的。这导致了一个多目标问题,其目标是最大程度地提高易受洪水区域的撤离人员数量,并最大程度地减少庇护所住所结束时的感染数量。据我们所知,在文献中尚待探讨这样的问题。在这里,我们开发了一个模拟优化框架,其中以最大值的方式处理了多个目标。模拟模型由一个扩展的易感暴露感染感染易感(SEIRS)模型组成。我们将拟议模型应用于印度奥里萨邦州奥里萨邦的易受洪水的Jagatsinghpur区。我们发现,拟议的方法可以估算从个人容易洪水的村庄撤离所需的人,以减少大流行期间的洪水危害。同时,这不会导致不受控制的新感染。拟议的方法可以推广到不同地区,并可以为利益相关者提供一个框架,以管理灾难管理计划中相互矛盾的目标并处理复合危害。
The evacuation of the population from flood-affected regions is a non-structural measure to mitigate flood hazards. Shelters used for this purpose usually accommodate a large number of flood evacuees for a temporary period. Floods during pandemic result in a compound hazard. Evacuations under such situations are difficult to plan as social distancing is nearly impossible in the highly crowded shelters. This results in a multi-objective problem with conflicting objectives of maximizing the number of evacuees from flood-prone regions and minimizing the number of infections at the end of the shelter's stay. To the best of our knowledge, such a problem is yet to be explored in literature. Here we develop a simulation-optimization framework, where multiple objectives are handled with a max-min approach. The simulation model consists of an extended Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered Susceptible (SEIRS) model.We apply the proposed model to the flood-prone Jagatsinghpur district in the state of Odisha, India. We find that the proposed approach can provide an estimate of people required to be evacuated from individual flood-prone villages to reduce flood hazards during the pandemic. At the same time, this does not result in an uncontrolled number of new infections. The proposed approach can generalize to different regions and can provide a framework to stakeholders to manage conflicting objectives in disaster management planning and to handle compound hazards.