论文标题
技术变革中的周期性现象
Cyclical phenomena in technological change
论文作者
论文摘要
技术变革的过程可以被视为一种非确定性系统，该系统受产生周期性现象的累积性质因素的控制。在这种情况下，可以系统地分析技术的增长和衰落过程，以设计针对企业的技术管理和国家创新政策的最佳实践。从这个角度来看，这项研究的重点是美国录制的音乐行业的技术发展。经验发现表明，这里研究的领域的技术变化具有技术创新的反复波动。特别是，在市场进化过程中，技术的循环的上波阶段比下波动阶段更长，然后才能用新技术代替。结果表明，根本性创新是工业和公司变革的周期性现象的主要来源之一，因此，经济和社会变革。
The process of technological change can be regarded as a non-deterministic system governed by factors of a cumulative nature that generate cyclical phenomena. In this context, the process of growth and decline of technology can be systematically analyzed to design best practices for technology management of firms and innovation policy of nations. In this perspective, this study focuses on the evolution of technologies in the U.S. recorded music industry. Empirical findings reveal that technological change in the sector under study here has recurring fluctuations of technological innovations. In particular, cycle of technology has up wave phase longer than down wave phase in the process of evolution in markets before it is substituted by a new technology. Results suggest that radical innovation is one of the main sources of cyclical phenomena for industrial and corporate change, and as a consequence, economic and social change.
