论文标题

可持续性的社会小费流程:一个分析框架

Social tipping processes for sustainability: An analytical framework

论文作者

Winkelmann, Ricarda, Donges, Jonathan F., Smith, E. Keith, Milkoreit, Manjana, Eder, Christina, Heitzig, Jobst, Katsanidou, Alexia, Wiedermann, Marc, Wunderling, Nico, Lenton, Timothy M.

论文摘要

社会转型对于应对全球关键挑战是必要的,例如缓解人为气候变化和实现非可持续发展目标。最近,社会小费流程受到了越来越多的关注,因为它们提出了一种社会变革的形式,因此由于强烈的自我扩张(数学上积极)的反馈机制,敏感的社会系统可以将敏感的社会系统转变为质上不同的状态。社会小费过程被认为是在技术和能源系统,政治动员,金融市场以及社会文化规范和行为领域中出现的可持续性转变的关键驱动力。 从专家启发和全面文献综述中汲取灵感,我们开发了一个框架,以识别和表征对促进快速社会转型至关重要的社会小费过程。我们发现,社交倾销过程与已经研究的气候和生态倾斜动态的过程可以区分。特别是,我们确定了人类代理,社会机构网络结构,不同的空间和时间尺度,并增加了复杂性,这是社会小费过程的关键独特特征。在这些特征的基础上,我们为社会小费过程和过滤标准提出了一个正式定义,这些过程可能对未来的轨迹决定人类世的全球可持续性。我们用欧洲政治体系作为潜在的社会小费过程的一个例子来说明这一定义,并强调了Fridaysforuture运动的潜在作用。 因此,这种社交小费过程的分析框架可用于阐明机制,以实现必要的变革性气候变化缓解政策和行动。

Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes have been suggested as key drivers of sustainability transitions emerging in the fields of technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets and sociocultural norms and behaviors. Drawing from expert elicitation and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics. In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering criteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories to global sustainability in the Anthropocene. We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the potential role of the FridaysForFuture movement. Accordingly, this analytical framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative climate change mitigation policies and actions.

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