论文标题
有条件的左右尾巴的极值贝叶斯套索
An Extreme Value Bayesian Lasso for the Conditional Left and Right Tails
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了一个新的回归模型,用于可能是重型响应的左右尾部的新型回归模型。提出的模型可用于通过基于拉格朗日限制的套索式规范来学习协变量对极值设置的影响。我们的模型可用于跟踪某些协变量是否对较低的值很重要,但对于(右)尾巴而言,对,反之亦然;除此之外,提出的模型绕过了极值理论框架中对条件阈值选择的需求。我们通过一项模拟研究评估了所提出方法的有限样本性能,该研究表明,我们的方法在各种模拟场景上恢复了真实的条件分布,并且在可变选择方面非常准确。降雨数据用于展示所提出的方法如何学会区分中等降雨的关键驱动因素与极端降雨的驱动力。
We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification based on a Lagrangian restriction. Our model can be used to track if some covariates are significant for the lower values, but not for the (right) tail---and vice-versa; in addition to this, the proposed model bypasses the need for conditional threshold selection in an extreme value theory framework. We assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed methods through a simulation study that reveals that our method recovers the true conditional distribution over a variety of simulation scenarios, along with being accurate on variable selection. Rainfall data are used to showcase how the proposed method can learn to distinguish between key drivers of moderate rainfall, against those of extreme rainfall.