论文标题
社交泡沫和超级传播者：Hyprees传染过程的来源识别
Social Bubbles and Superspreaders: Source Identification for Contagion Processes on Hypertrees
论文作者
论文摘要
先前的工作表明，对于扩展恒星网络上的传染过程（恰好是一个> 2个节点的树），有一个简单的，封闭形式的表达式，可与最大似然感染源具有高度准确的近似值。在这里，我们将该结果推广到一类Hyprees，尽管在结构上有些类似，但提供了更丰富的表示空间。特别是，即使通过大型团体聚会而不是人与人之间的传播，这种方法也可以用来估计患者零来源，即使感染是通过相互关联的社交泡沫传播的，并以不同程度的重叠来传播。在触点跟踪上下文中，该估计器可用于识别局部爆发的来源，然后可以将其用于前进的跟踪，也可以用于向上推进到上游源的进一步向后跟踪（通过类似或其他方式）。
Previous work has shown that for contagion processes on extended star networks (trees with exactly one node of degree > 2), there is a simple, closed-form expression for a highly accurate approximation to the maximum likelihood infection source. Here, we generalize that result to a class of hypertrees which, although somewhat structurally analogous, provides a much richer representation space. In particular, this approach can be used to estimate patient zero sources, even when the infection has been propagated via large group gatherings rather than person-to-person spread, and when it is spreading through interrelated social bubbles with varying degrees of overlap. In contact tracing contexts, this estimator may be used to identify the source of a local outbreak, which can then be used for forward tracing or for further backward tracing (by similar or other means) to an upstream source.
