论文标题
变分贝叶神经网络:后验一致性,分类精度和计算挑战
Variational Bayes Neural Network: Posterior Consistency, Classification Accuracy and Computational Challenges
论文作者
论文摘要
由于可扩展计算的进步及其在解决各种应用中解决复杂的预测问题方面的实用性,贝叶斯神经网络模型(BNN)近年来重新估计。尽管BNN的流行性和有用性,但基于蒙特卡洛的传统链链的实施却遭受了较高的计算成本,从而限制了这种强大的技术在大规模研究中的使用。差异贝叶斯推论已成为避免某些计算问题的可行替代方法。尽管该方法在机器学习中很受欢迎,但其在统计数据中的应用有限。本文开发了一种变异的贝叶斯神经网络估计方法和相关的统计理论。详细讨论了数值算法及其实现。后验一致性的理论是非参数贝叶斯统计中理想的特性的理论。该理论提供了对预测准确性和指南的评估,以表征先前的分布和变异家族。也已量化了在真实后部上使用变异后验的损失。该开发是由重要的生物医学工程应用所激发的,即从轻度认知障碍到阿尔茨海默氏病过渡的预测工具。预测因子是多模式的,可能涉及复杂的互动关系。
Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and usefulness of BNN, the conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo based implementation suffers from high computational cost, limiting the use of this powerful technique in large scale studies. The variational Bayes inference has become a viable alternative to circumvent some of the computational issues. Although the approach is popular in machine learning, its application in statistics is somewhat limited. This paper develops a variational Bayesian neural network estimation methodology and related statistical theory. The numerical algorithms and their implementational are discussed in detail. The theory for posterior consistency, a desirable property in nonparametric Bayesian statistics, is also developed. This theory provides an assessment of prediction accuracy and guidelines for characterizing the prior distributions and variational family. The loss of using a variational posterior over the true posterior has also been quantified. The development is motivated by an important biomedical engineering application, namely building predictive tools for the transition from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease. The predictors are multi-modal and may involve complex interactive relations.