论文标题
时间相关的阶段结构模型的占用时间
Occupancy times for time-dependent stage-structured models
论文作者
论文摘要
在他们的一生中，人口中的个人经过不同的州，入住时间的概念描述了一个人在给定的状态下花费的时间。罗斯（Roth）和卡斯韦尔（Caswell）最近的一篇论文研究了与该想法相关的问题，以解决环境条件持续的情况。但是，考虑到环境随着时间的方式随机变化或以方向方式变化的情况确实很重要，因此不同状态之间的过渡概率会随着时间而变化，从而激发了使用时间相关的阶段结构化模型。 使用吸收的非构态马尔可夫链和离散的麦肯德里克 - von f {Ö} rster方程，我们在占用时间，预期，其期望以及其阶段结构模型的高阶时刻及其依赖性过渡速率中得出了明确的公式。我们采用我们的方法来研究南部富尔玛的时间依赖性模型，并了解育种尝试的数量如何取决于随时间变化的外部条件。
During their lifetimes, individuals in populations pass through different states, and the notion of an occupancy time describes the amount of time an individual spends in a given set of states. Questions related to this idea were studied in a recent paper by Roth and Caswell for cases where the environmental conditions are constant. However, it is truly important to consider the case where environments are changing randomly or in directional way through time, so the transition probabilities between different states change over time, motivating the use of time-dependent stage-structured models. Using absorbing inhomogenous Markov chains and the discrete-time McKendrick--von F{ö}rster equation, we derive explicit formulas for the occupancy time, its expectation, and its higher-order moments for stage-structured models with time-dependent transition rates. We apply our approach to study a time-dependent model of the Southern Fulmar, and obtain insights into how the number of breeding attempts depends on external conditions that vary through time.
