论文标题
面对大流行的商业和消费者不确定性：欧洲国家的部门分析
Business and consumer uncertainty in the face of the pandemic: A sector analysis in European countries
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了32个欧洲国家和欧盟（EU）的冠状病毒大流行中的商业和消费者不确定性的演变。由于不确定的不确定性，我们使用Claveria等人的几何差异指标进行了近似。 （2019年）。这种方法允许我们量化32个国家 /地区的商业和消费者期望的分歧比例。我们使用了来自欧洲委员会进行的所有每月每月的前瞻性问题中包含的所有预期问题。这使我们能够近似经济活动各个方面的不确定性比例，既形成了经济的需求和供应方面。然后我们使用这些指标来计算该行业层面的分歧指标。我们将不确定性的不确定性的演变绘制为分析经济体的主要经济行业的演变。危机。从危机中，通过添加部门指标，可以计算出业务不确定性的指标并与消费者进行比较。尽可能地，我们发现经理和消费者之间不确定性的演变存在很大差异。此分析旨在为Coronavirus Crisis级别的Coronavirus Cristectal层中的经济不确定性提供全球性的概述。
This paper examines the evolution of business and consumer uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic in 32 European countries and the European Union (EU).Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geometric discrepancy indicator of Claveria et al. (2019).This approach allows us quantifying the proportion of disagreement in business and consumer expectations of 32 countries.We have used information from all monthly forward-looking questions contained in Joint Harmonised Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys conducted by the European Commission (the industry survey, the service survey, the retail trade survey, the building survey and the consumer survey).First, we have calculated a discrepancy indicator for each of the 17 survey questions analysed, which allows us to approximate the proportion of uncertainty about different aspects of economic activity, both form the demand and the supply sides of the economy.We then use these indicators to calculate disagreement indices at the sector level.We graphic the evolution of the degree of uncertainty in the main economic sectors of the analysed economies up to June 2020.We observe marked differences, both across variables, sectors and countries since the inception of the COVID-19 crisis.Finally, by adding the sectoral indicators, an indicator of business uncertainty is calculated and compared with that of consumers.Again, we find substantial differences in the evolution of uncertainty between managers and consumers.This analysis seeks to offer a global overview of the degree of economic uncertainty in the midst of the coronavirus crisis at the sectoral level.
