论文标题
中国湖北省COVID-19的引力和自回归分析的空间扩散
Gravitational and Autoregressive Analysis Spatial Diffusion of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China
论文作者
论文摘要
流行病的空间扩散遵循地理距离衰减定律，但是不同的扩散过程可以通过不同时空条件下的不同数学功能来建模。本文致力于建模从武汉市到湖北省的共同-19的空间扩散模式。这些方法包括重力和空间自动回归分析。局部重力模型源自异形缩放和全局重力模型，然后通过观察数据和线性回归来估算局部重力模型的参数。主要结果如下。基于功率定律衰减的局部重力模型可以有效地描述荷叶省COVID-19的扩散模式和过程，以及基于对观测数据的负指数衰减的重力模型的拟合度不满意。此外，随着时间的流逝，模型对数据的拟合度完全变得越来越好，大小弹性系数首先增加，然后降低，距离衰减指数首先减少，然后增加。此外，该模型中空间自回归系数的重要性很低，置信度低于80％。结论可以如下得出。 （1）湖北部共证19的空间扩散具有远距离效应，城市的大小以及城市距离武汉的距离会影响确认案件的总数。 （2）武汉直接传输是早期河比中库维德19中空间扩散的主要过程，区域之间的水平传播并不显着。 （3）中国政府采取的空间隔离措施对COVID-19的传播的影响是显而易见的。这项研究表明，应考虑重力的作用，以预防和控制流行病。
The spatial diffusion of epidemic disease follows distance decay law in geography, but different diffusion processes may be modeled by different mathematical functions under different spatio-temporal conditions. This paper is devoted to modeling spatial diffusion patterns of COVID-19 stemming from Wuhan city to Hubei province. The methods include gravity and spatial auto-regression analyses. The local gravity model is derived from allometric scaling and global gravity model, and then the parameters of the local gravity model are estimated by observational data and linear regression. The main results are as below. The local gravity model based on power law decay can effectively describe the diffusion patterns and process of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, and the goodness of fit of the gravity model based on negative exponential decay to the observation data is not satisfactory. Further, the goodness of fit of the model to data entirely became better and better over time, the size elasticity coefficient increases first and then decreases, and the distance attenuation exponent decreases first and then increases. Moreover, the significance of spatial autoregressive coefficient in the model is low, and the confidence level is less than 80%. The conclusions can be reached as follows. (1) The spatial diffusion of COVID-19 of Hubei bears long range effect, and the size of a city and the distance of the city to Wuhan affect the total number of confirmed cases. (2) Wuhan direct transmission is the main process in the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in Hubei at the early stage, and the horizontal transmission between regions is not significant. (3) The effect of spatial isolation measures taken by Chinese government against the transmission of COVID-19 is obvious. This study suggests that the role of gravity should be taken into account to prevent and control epidemic disease.
