论文标题
预测Covid-19智利通过恒定时间延迟和拟合积极率的广义SIR模型的第二次爆发
Forecasting COVID-19 Chile's second outbreak by a generalized SIR model with constant time delays and a fitted positivity rate
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19疾病迫使国家在科学家和政府之间做出了相当大的合作努力，以提供适当跟进大流行后果的指标。数学建模在量化大流行的各个方面的指标中起着至关重要的作用。因此，这项工作旨在为参数优化开发一种清晰，高效且可重复的方法，该方法使用来自智利三个代表性区域的数据和合适的广义SIR模型以及合适的阳性率进行了说明。我们的结果重现了感染曲线的总体趋势，从而区分了报告的病例和实际病例。最后，我们的方法是强大的，它使我们可以根据报道的死亡病例预测19次COVID-19的第二次爆发和Covid-19的感染死亡率。
The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in quantifying indicators describing diverse aspects of the pandemic. Consequently, this work aims to develop a clear, efficient, and reproducible methodology for parameter optimization, whose implementation is illustrated using data from three representative regions from Chile and a suitable generalized SIR model together with a fitted positivity rate. Our results reproduce the general trend of the infected's curve, distinguishing the reported and real cases. Finally, our methodology is robust, and it allows us to forecast a second outbreak of COVID-19 and the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 qualitatively according to the reported dead cases.
