论文标题
一项分析以识别土耳其Covid-19的结构断裂
An analysis to identify the structural breaks of COVID-19 in Turkey
论文作者
论文摘要
在COVID-19的严重爆发的国家中，大多数政府都在考虑反交易措施是否值得社会和经济成本。经济成本的严重性，例如关闭某些工作场所，失业，减少生产以及社会成本，例如学校关闭，教育中断。但是，无法观察到采取的措施对流行病的传播的影响，例如延迟或预防案件的数量。因此，采取的措施对健康的直接影响，即对流行病的影响是重要的研究对象。为此，在本研究中，进行了断点线性回归分析，以分析土耳其每日活跃病例，恢复和死亡的趋势。分析表明，对锁定和其他预防措施产生了显着影响。使用断点回归模型，我们还分析了八个受影响国家的主动案例轨迹，并将这些国家的模式与土耳其进行比较。
In countries with a severe outbreak of COVID-19, most governments are considering whether anti-transmission measures are worth social and economic costs. The seriousness of economic costs such as the closure of some workplaces, unemployment, reduction in production, and social costs such as school closures, disruptions in education could be observable. However, the effect of the measures taken on the spread of the epidemic, such as the number of delayed or prevented cases, could not be observed. For this reason, the direct effects of the measures taken on health, that is, the effects on the course of the epidemic, are important research subjects. For this purpose, in this study, the breakpoint linear regression analysis is performed to analyze the trends of daily active cases, recovered, and deaths in Turkey. The analysis reveals that there has been a remarkable impact on lockdown and other precautions. Using the breakpoint regression model, we also analyze the active cases' trajectory for eight affected countries and compare the patterns in these countries with Turkey.
