论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Limits on primordial black holes detectability with Isatis: A BlackHawk tool
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Primordial black holes (PBHs) are convenient candidates to explain the elusive dark matter (DM). However, years of constraints from various astronomical observations have constrained their abundance over a wide range of masses, leaving only a narrow window open at $10^{17}\,{\rm g} \lesssim M \lesssim 10^{22}\,$g for all DM in the form of PBHs. We reexamine this disputed window with a critical eye, interrogating the general hypotheses underlying the direct photon constraints. We review 4 levels of assumptions: i) instrument characteristics, ii) prediction of the (extra)galactic photon flux, iii) statistical method of signal-to-data comparison and iv) computation of the Hawking radiation rate. Thanks to Isatis, a new tool designed for the public Hawking radiation code BlackHawk, we first revisit the existing and prospective constraints on the PBH abundance and investigate the impact of assumptions i)-iv). We show that the constraints can vary by several orders of magnitude, advocating the necessity of a reduction of the theoretical sources of uncertainties. Second, we consider an "ideal" instrument and we demonstrate that the PBH DM scenario can only be constrained by the direct photon Hawking radiation phenomenon below $M_{\rm max} \sim 10^{20}\,$g. The upper part of the mass window should therefore be closed by other means.