论文标题

通过随机网络在金融市场中的意见动态

Opinion Dynamics in Financial Markets via Random Networks

论文作者

Granha, Mateus F. B., Vilela, André L. M., Wang, Chao, Nelson, Kenric P., Stanley, H. Eugene

论文摘要

我们通过引入基于代理的意见形成模型来研究金融市场动态。在这项工作中,我们通过其交易策略(即噪音交易者和原教旨主义者)在金融市场中组织个人。当地多数派的意见迫使市场交流噪声交易者的行为,而市场的全球行为影响原教旨主义者的决定。我们引入了噪声参数$ Q $,以代表市场行为的焦虑和感知不确定性,从而有可能采取漂流的金融行动。我们将个人作为节点作为节点在erdös-rényi随机图中,其中链接代表了他们的社交互动。在给定时间,他们假设两个可能的意见之一指出,$ \ pm 1 $关于买卖资产。该模型表现出这种基本定性和定量的现实世界市场特征,例如对数回报的分布,具有脂肪尾巴,群集波动率和回报的长期相关性。我们使用学生的t分布来适合对数回报的直方图,这表明,根据原教旨主义者的比例,从链球菌逐渐转移到了中毛状态。我们还将结果与几个现实世界财务指数的对数回报的分布进行了比较。

We investigate the financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize the individuals in a financial market by their trading strategy, namely noise traders and fundamentalists. The opinion of a local majority compels the market exchanging behavior of noise traders, whereas the global behavior of the market influences the fundamentalist agents' decisions. We introduce a noise parameter $q$ to represent a level of anxiety and perceived uncertainty regarding the market behavior, enabling the possibility for an adrift financial action. We place the individuals as nodes in an Erdös-Rényi random graph, where the links represent their social interaction. At a given time, they assume one of two possible opinion states $\pm 1$ regarding buying or selling an asset. The model exhibits such fundamental qualitative and quantitative real-world market features as the distribution of logarithmic returns with fat-tails, clustered volatility, and long-term correlation of returns. We use Student's t distributions to fit the histograms of logarithmic returns, showing the gradual shift from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime, depending on the fraction of fundamentalist agents. We also compare our results with the distribution of logarithmic returns of several real-world financial indices.

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