论文标题
最佳锁定以管理流行病
Optimal Lockdown to Manage an Epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
我们制定一个最佳控制问题，以确定锁定策略，以遏制其他控制措施的流行病。我们提出了一个统一的框架，以模拟流行病和经济，使我们能够一起研究锁定对他们俩的影响。该目标功能考虑了流行病期间的死亡和感染成本，以及由于封锁而导致的相互作用减少而导致的经济损失。我们调整了Covid-19-19的流行病模型以及印度和美国的经济体（低，中和高收入国家）的参数。我们研究所有这些国家的最佳锁定政策和系统参数的影响。我们的框架和结果对于政策制定者设计最佳的锁定策略很有用，这些策略构成了流行病相关的感染和死亡以及由于封锁而导致的经济损失。
We formulate an optimal control problem to determine the lockdown policy to curb an epidemic where other control measures are not available yet. We present a unified framework to model the epidemic and economy that allows us to study the effect of lockdown on both of them together. The objective function considers cost of deaths and infections during the epidemic, as well as economic losses due to reduced interactions due to lockdown. We tune the parameters of our model for Covid-19 epidemic and the economies of Burundi, India, and the United States (the low, medium and high income countries). We study the optimal lockdown policies and effect of system parameters for all of these countries. Our framework and results are useful for policymakers to design optimal lockdown strategies that account for both epidemic related infections and deaths, and economic losses due to lockdown.
