论文标题

脉冲星时阵列的重力波统计:检查使用有限数量的脉冲星的偏见

Gravitational Wave Statistics for Pulsar Timing Arrays: Examining Bias from Using a Finite Number of Pulsars

论文作者

Johnson, Aaron D., Vigeland, Sarah J., Siemens, Xavier, Taylor, Stephen R.

论文摘要

最近,许多不同的PULSAR定时阵列(PTA)合作报告了其数据集中常见随机过程的有力证据。报告的幅度与先前计算的上限处于张力。在本文中,我们研究了使用一组脉冲星的子集如何偏见贝叶斯上限恢复。我们基于Nanograv的11年数据集生成500个模拟PTA数据集,并具有注射随机的重力波背景(GWB)。然后,我们通过采样单个脉冲星的可能性来计算上限,并通过PTA可能性的分解版本组合它们,以使用不同数量的PULSARS在GWB振幅上获得上限。我们发现,可以恢复上限(95 \%可靠的间隔)\ textit {下面}注入值,并且当使用脉冲星的子集计算上限时,可能会更有可能发生这种情况。当选择脉冲星诱导最大可能的偏差时,我们发现恢复的95 \%贝叶斯上限低于10.6 \%(500)实现的注入值。此外,我们发现,如果我们选择脉冲星的子集以获得上限的上限,而不是使用完整的脉冲星时,则从这500个实现中获得的上限分布转移到较低的振幅值。

Recently, many different pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations have reported strong evidence for a common stochastic process in their data sets. The reported amplitudes are in tension with previously computed upper limits. In this paper, we investigate how using a subset of a set of pulsars biases Bayesian upper limit recovery. We generate 500 simulated PTA data sets based on the NANOGrav 11-year data set with an injected stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB). We then compute upper limits by sampling individual pulsar likelihoods, and combine them through a factorized version of the PTA likelihood to obtain upper limits on the GWB amplitude using different numbers of pulsars. We find that it is possible to recover an upper limit (95\% credible interval) \textit{below} the injected value, and that it is significantly more likely for this to occur when using a subset of pulsars to compute the upper limit. When picking pulsars to induce the maximum possible bias, we find that the 95\% Bayesian upper limit recovered is below the injected value in 10.6\% (53 of 500) of realizations. Further, we find that if we choose a subset of pulsars in order to obtain a lower upper limit than when using the full set of pulsars, the distribution of upper limits obtained from these 500 realizations is shifted to lower amplitude values.

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