论文标题
影响：城市的综合自下而上的温室气体排放途径
IMPACT: Integrated Bottom-Up Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways for Cities
论文作者
论文摘要
不断增加的城市化给城市施加压力，要求优先考虑可持续增长并避免碳锁定。可用的建模框架急性地指导在地方一级进行此类关键决策。经济激励措施，行为干预和授权推动了可持续技术的采用，而土地使用分区在建筑环境中的碳排放中起着至关重要的作用。研究人员通常会在全国范围内评估策略的影响，或者在过去的发展后对不同的政策进行事后评估。这种分析不能预测特定城市的发射途径，因此不能作为当地决策者的投入。在这里，我们提出了影响途径，从具有居住水平粒度的自下而上的模型将技术采用政策与分区政策，气候变化和网格脱碳场景相结合。由于这座城市是我们分析的核心，我们确定了庞大的排放溢价，并表明存在不利的政策组合，可以随着时间的流逝而表现出反弹的排放。
Increasing urbanization puts pressure on cities to prioritize sustainable growth and avoid carbon lock-in. Available modeling frameworks fall acutely of guiding such pivotal decision-making at the local level. Financial incentives, behavioral interventions, and mandates drive sustainable technology adoption, while land-use zoning plays a critical role in carbon emissions from the built environment. Researchers typically evaluate impacts of policies top down, on a national scale, or else post-hoc on developments vis-à-vis different polices in the past. Such analyses cannot forecast emission pathways for specific cities, and hence cannot serve as input to local policymakers. Here, we present IMPACT pathways, from a bottom-up model with residence level granularity, that integrate technology adoption policies with zoning policies, climate change, and grid decarbonization scenarios. With the city at the heart of our analysis, we identify an emission premium for sprawling and show that adverse policy combinations exist that can exhibit rebounding emissions over time.
