论文标题
时间序列预测的多目标模型选择
Multi-Objective Model Selection for Time Series Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列的研究预测主要集中在开发提高准确性的方法上。但是,在许多现实世界中,培训时间或潜伏期等其他标准至关重要。因此,我们解决了如何在精确度仅是许多标准之一时,如何在许多可用的预测方法中为给定数据集选择适当的预测模型。为此,我们的贡献是两个方面。首先,我们提出了一个全面的基准测试,评估了44种异构公开可用数据集的7种古典和6种深度学习预测方法。基准代码与所有方法的评估和预测一起开源。这些评估使我们能够回答开放的问题,例如深度学习模型所需的数据量,以优于古典问题。其次,我们利用基准评估来学习良好的默认值,以考虑多个目标,例如准确性和延迟。通过学习从预测模型到性能指标的映射,我们表明我们的ParetoSelect能够从Pareto Front中准确选择模型 - 减轻了训练或评估许多用于选择模型选择的许多预测模型的需求。据我们所知,ParetoSelect构成了在多目标设置中学习默认模型的第一种方法。
Research on time series forecasting has predominantly focused on developing methods that improve accuracy. However, other criteria such as training time or latency are critical in many real-world applications. We therefore address the question of how to choose an appropriate forecasting model for a given dataset among the plethora of available forecasting methods when accuracy is only one of many criteria. For this, our contributions are two-fold. First, we present a comprehensive benchmark, evaluating 7 classical and 6 deep learning forecasting methods on 44 heterogeneous, publicly available datasets. The benchmark code is open-sourced along with evaluations and forecasts for all methods. These evaluations enable us to answer open questions such as the amount of data required for deep learning models to outperform classical ones. Second, we leverage the benchmark evaluations to learn good defaults that consider multiple objectives such as accuracy and latency. By learning a mapping from forecasting models to performance metrics, we show that our method PARETOSELECT is able to accurately select models from the Pareto front -- alleviating the need to train or evaluate many forecasting models for model selection. To the best of our knowledge, PARETOSELECT constitutes the first method to learn default models in a multi-objective setting.