论文标题
估计动态麻疹病例检测率的建模方法
A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles case detection rates
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的主要思想是，与报告的麻疹病例相关的年龄可用于估计未发现的麻疹感染的数量。令人惊讶的是，即使只有年龄到最接近的一年，也可以在比麻疹传播相关的2周时间尺度上产生估计不足的估计。我通过关注经过深入研究的60个城市英国数据集来描述这一想法，该数据集涵盖了1948年向普遍医疗保健的过渡，因此是传染病监测中有趣的案例研究。最后，在论文的结尾，我简要评论了如何修改该方法以应用于现代环境。
The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of underreporting can be generated at the much faster, 2 week time-scale associated with measles transmission. I describe this idea by focusing on the well-studied, 60 city United Kingdom data set, which covers the transition to universal healthcare in 1948, and is, as a result, an interesting case study in infectious disease surveillance. Finally, at the end of the paper, I comment briefly on how the approach can be modified for application to modern contexts.
