论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Superspreading and Heterogeneity in Epidemics
论文作者
论文摘要
通常按照速率和扩散方程式对流行病的扩散通常是按照良好控制的化学反应和试管中的扩散动力学的范式来建模和分析的。然而,严重的担心,这种暗示性和吸引人的相似性可能是一个虚假的朋友,已经被数学流行病学的先驱表达了。一个世纪后,我们可以利用网络和游戏理论的交叉剥夺以及生态进化动态的新兴领域来证实它们。因此,流行病学扩散是一种根本上异质和不稳定的过程,该过程具有某些特性,以及更笨拙的现象,例如地震,飓风,交通拥堵和股票崩溃。它们的特征都具有高尾巴风险,这些风险很少而致命。它们源于不太可能的局部随机“超级宣传员”事件的爆发,微观的波动和不确定性可能会受到巨大的放大,这使它们的准确预测和内在地和臭名昭著。此外,这种流行病的扩散与同样异质的遗传漂移和信息反馈密切相互交织在一起,增加了新的挑战和机会。
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries that this suggestive and appealing similarity might be a false friend were already voiced by the pioneers of mathematical epidemiology. A century later, we can draw on cross-fertilizations from network and game theory and the emerging field of eco-evolutionary dynamics to substantiate them. Epidemiological spreading is thereby revealed as a fundamentally heterogeneous and erratic process that shares certain properties with more unwieldy phenomena, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, traffic jams, and stock crashes. They are all characterised by high tail risks that materialize very rarely but fatally. That they arise from bursts of unlikely chains of localized random "superspreader" events, by which micro-scale fluctuations and uncertainties may get heftily magnified, makes their accurate prediction and control intrinsically and notoriously hard. That epidemic disease spreading is moreover closely intertwined with equally heterogeneous genetic drift and information feedback adds new challenges -- and chances.