论文标题
太阳活动的长期变化：幅度和南北不对称的太阳周期的预测25
Long-term Variations in Solar Activity: Predictions for Amplitude and North--South Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25
论文作者
论文摘要
We analysed the sunspot group data from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere （SSGA）在黑子循环的最大值的时期12-24，以及WSGA，NSGA和SSGA周期的最大值时代。余弦符合日光点数的最大值WSGA，NSGA和SSGA的值，WSGA，WSGA，NSGA和SSGA循环12-24，以及相应的北南不对称的值，表明存在〜132年的周期性，这表明北部北部的活动中存在〜132年的周期性，并在54-66年6月6日的活动中进行了54--66年度的活性，该活动是54--66的周期性的。上述所有时期的运动活动的年度周期性。通过推断最合适的余弦曲线，我们预测了第25 WSGA，NSGA和SSGA周期的振幅和相应的南北不对称。我们发现，在黑子组面积的平均太阳周期25在某种程度上，太阳能群体在太阳能群体面积中要小。但是，通过输入第25个WSGA，NSGA和SSGA周期的预测幅度在黑子组面积和黑子数量之间的线性关系中，我们发现，振幅（130 +or- 12）的振幅（130 +or- 12）的25的幅度（130 +or- 12）将比合理的小太小周期稍大，这还会确认24个周期。除了在NSGA周期25的最大值，在北半球的活性强度将是主导的，在第25个Sunspot，WSGA和SSGA周期的最大时期，南半球的活动强度将主要占主导地位。
We analysed the sunspot group data from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12-24, and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24. The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of the sunspot number, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24, and to the values of the corresponding north-south asymmetry, suggest the existence of a ~132-year periodicity in the activity of northern hemisphere, a 54-66-year periodicity in the activity of southern hemisphere, and a 50-66 year periodicity in the north-south asymmetry in activity at all the aforementioned epochs. By extrapolating the best-fit cosine curves we predicted the amplitudes and the corresponding north-south asymmetry of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles. We find that on average Solar Cycle 25 in sunspot-group area would be to some extent smaller than Solar Cycle 24 in sunspot-group area. However, by inputting the predicted amplitudes of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles in the linear relationship between sunspot-group area and sunspot number we find that the amplitude (130 +or- 12) of Sunspot Cycle 25 would be slightly larger than that of reasonably small Sunspot Cycle 24. Still it confirms that the beginning of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle would take place around Solar Cycle 25. We also find that except at the maximum of NSGA Cycle 25 where the strength of activity in northern hemisphere would be dominant, the strength of activity in the southern hemisphere would be dominant at the maximum epochs of the 25th sunspot, WSGA, and SSGA cycles.
