论文标题
太阳周期25使用长度到振幅关系的预测
Solar cycle 25 prediction using length-to-amplitude relations
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种基于两个关系的11年太阳周期最大值预测的简单方法。其中之一是众所周知的Waldmeier规则，它结合了一个循环的幅度及其上升阶段的长度。第二个规则将给定周期的长度从最小值到最小值以及下一个循环的幅度。使用相应的线性回归，我们获得了第25周期的幅度的相应线性回归，每月平滑的每月总修订的黑子数量$ {\ rm sn} _ {\ rm max}（25）= 181 \ pm46 $，并在最大$ t _ {\ rm max}（\ rm max}（25）（25）（25）（25）= 20224.2 $ pm pm46 $。因此，根据预测，25周期将高于前一个（$ {\ rm sn} _ {\ rm max}（24）= 116 $），概率为0.92。
We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second rule relates the length of a given cycle from minimum to minimum and the amplitude of the next one. Using corresponding linear regressions we obtain for the amplitide of cycle 25 in the scale of 13-month smoothed monthly total revised sunspot number ${\rm SN}_{\rm max}(25) = 181\pm46$ and for the moment of the maximum $T_{\rm max}(25) = 2024.2\pm1.0$. Therefore, according to the prediction, cycle 25 will be higher than the previous one (${\rm SN}_{\rm max}(24) = 116$) with probability 0.92.
