论文标题
北极海冰什么时候消失？面积，范围，厚度和体积的预测
When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
论文作者
论文摘要
北极夏季海冰迅速减少是全球气候变化速度的强烈信号。我们为四种北极海冰量度提供点，间隔和密度预测：面积，范围，厚度和体积。重要的是，我们强制执行这些措施必须同时到达无冰北极的共同约束。我们将这种约束的关节预测程序应用于模型与大气中的二氧化碳浓度以及将海冰直接与时间相关的模型与时间相关的模型。由此产生的“碳趋势”和“时间趋势”的预测是相互一致的，并预测到2030年代中期的近乎无冰的夏季北极海洋，概率为80％。此外，碳趋势预测表明，全球采用较低的碳路径可能只会将季节性无冰北极的到来延迟几年。
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.
